The Key to Understanding Prophecy (summarized)

Why Dating the Crucifixion Matters

The Second Coming of Jesus Christ depends upon the fact that Jesus lived, died, and rose from the dead. If Jesus did not rise from the grave, then there is no foundation for our hope. But if He did rise, then prophecy—past and future—stands as truth. To interpret prophecy rightly, we must determine the date of Jesus’ crucifixion. This provides an anchor from which all other prophetic timelines flow.

To do this, we begin with a fixed point: the baptism of Jesus, which is historically and scripturally dated. From there, we can calculate the years of His ministry and determine the exact year of His crucifixion. We will then verify this date with astronomical data, the structure of the Jewish calendar, and the prophecy of Daniel’s seventy weeks.

The Baptism of Jesus: A Historical Anchor

Luke records:

“In the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar... the word of God came to John the son of Zechariah in the wilderness. And he went into all the region around the Jordan, proclaiming a baptism of repentance.” (Luke 3:1-3)

Most historians agree that Tiberius began his co-regency in AD 11 and sole reign in AD 14. Therefore, the fifteenth year of his reign must fall between September AD 28 and September AD 29. Jesus' baptism by John occurred during this period.

Historical cross-references:

·         Pontius Pilate began his rule in AD 26.

·         Herod Antipas ruled Galilee from 4 BC to AD 39.

·         Caiaphas was high priest from AD 18–36. 

All of these officials were in power during AD 28–29, confirming Luke's timeline.

Additionally, a coin housed in the British Museum dated to the seventeenth (17^th) year of Tiberius Caesar (AD 30–31) helps confirm the historical record, showing that the fifteenth year (when Jesus was baptized) aligns with AD 28–29—not earlier.

Conclusion: Jesus was baptized in early AD 29.

Ministry of Jesus: Not Three-and-a-Half Years

John’s Gospel does not mention four Passovers. It only mentions the following three Passovers attended by Jesus:

·         John 2:13 – The Passover immediately after His baptism.

·         John 6:4 – The second Passover.

·         John 11:55 – The final Passover, during which He was crucified.

From Jesus’ baptism to His crucifixion, this spans two years and two months at the most. There is no biblical basis for a fourth Passover. Attempts to insert one—such as the unqualified feast in John 5:1—are speculative. Most likely, this was the Feast of Purim, which is not a Mosaic feast and occurs one month before Passover. Jesus' baptism in early AD 29 followed by two Passovers places His crucifixion at the third Passover—in AD 31.

Wednesday Crucifixion Required For Three Days and Three Nights In The Heart Of The Earth

Jesus said:

“For just as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of the great fish, so will the Son of Man be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth.” (Matthew 12:40)

A Friday crucifixion cannot accommodate three full days and nights before Sunday morning. But a Wednesday evening crucifixion allows for:

·         Wednesday evening to Thursday morning – Night 1

·         Thursday morning to Thursday evening – Day 1

·         Thursday evening to Friday morning – Night 2

·         Friday morning to Friday evening – Day 2

·         Friday evening to Saturday morning – Night 3

·         Saturday morning to Saturday evening – Day 3

Thus, Jesus rose at the beginning of Saturday evening, after three days and three nights, exactly as prophesied.

Astronomical data from the U.S. Naval Observatory confirms that in AD 31, the 14th of Nisan (Passover) fell on Wednesday, April 25—the only fitting date in that period.

Jewish Feasts and Calendar Complexities

The Jewish calendar includes both a civil year and a sacred year, with months of 29 or 30 days depending on lunar cycles. The feasts of the Lord—Passover, Unleavened Bread, Pentecost, Trumpets, Day of Atonement, and Tabernacles—are rooted in this lunar system.

The original 360-day year, found in Genesis and supported by ancient calendars, was likely changed after the Flood. Today’s 365.25-day solar year complicates retrospective calculations, but the 360-day year is the basis of prophetic reckoning, used in Daniel and Revelation.

Establishing the Year of the Crucifixion

Using Daniel’s prophecy:

“From the going out of the word to restore and build Jerusalem to the coming of an anointed one, a prince, there shall be seven weeks. Then for sixty-two weeks...” (Daniel 9:25)

69 weeks = 483 prophetic years (360 days/year) 483 x 360 = 173,880 days = 476 years + 25 days on our calendar.[i]

Counting 476 years and 25 days back from April 25, AD 31 brings us to March 31, 445 BC, when Artaxerxes I gave Nehemiah the decree to rebuild Jerusalem (Nehemiah 2:3-6).

This confirms Daniel's prophecy: Jesus was crucified exactly 69 weeks after the decree.

Refuting the AD 33 Friday Crucifixion Theory

The popular Friday crucifixion in AD 33 fails multiple tests:

It does not fulfill “three days and three nights”—essential!

·         Passover in AD 33 fell on a Monday, not Friday.

·         It forces interpreters to insert a fourth Passover without biblical support.

·         It conflicts with the two-year ministry timeline.

John 5:1 mentions a feast—but not Passover. Likely Purim.[ii]

Scholars who push for an AD 33 crucifixion do so to fit a theological agenda—not biblical or astronomical data.

The 70th Week of Daniel: Yet to Be Fulfilled

Some claim that Jesus fulfilled the first half of Daniel’s 70th week, then the Gospel went to the Gentiles in the second half. But the covenant in Daniel 9:27 is not made by Christ, but by a prince who causes abominations.

“And he shall make a strong covenant with many for one week, and for half of the week he shall put an end to sacrifice and offering...” (Daniel 9:27)

This points to a future Antichrist, not Jesus. The sacrifices performed by the Levitical priesthood were ineffective and unable to cleanse the sinner (Hebrews 10:4). They had already ceased during the Babylonian exile, demonstrating their lack of essentiality.

Conclusion: The 70th week is still future. 

The 69 weeks ended with Christ’s death. The final seven years precede His Second Coming.

Dating Jesus' Birth

Jesus was “about thirty” when baptized (Luke 3:23). If baptized in early AD 29, He was born probably in the spring of 2 BC. This construction just keeps fitting like the correct pieces of a puzzle, without any need to twist anything.

Josephus states Herod died between an eclipse and Passover. A lunar eclipse occurred January 10, 1 BC, with Passover on April 11—the best fit for Herod’s death, with the baby Jesus not yet 12 months of age.

Therefore, Jesus’ birth occurred before 1 BC, aligning with Herod’s massacre of infants two years and younger (Matthew 2:16).

Summary of Key Dates

·         Jesus born: Likely March/April, 2 BC

·         Jesus baptized: January, AD 29 (15th year of Tiberius)

·         Passovers attended: AD 29 and AD 30

·         Crucifixion: Wednesday, April 25, AD 31

·         Fulfills: Daniel’s 69 weeks prophecy and Jesus’ own sign of three days and nights

This is not theological speculation—it is historical, astronomical, and scriptural evidence aligned.

Event	Details	Supporting Evidence
1. Herod’s Death	Herod died in 1 BC, shortly after a lunar eclipse and before Passover.	Josephus' Antiquities + NASA confirms a full lunar eclipse on Jan 10, 1 BC.
2. Jesus’ Birth	Likely born in Spring of 2 BC, during a time of census registration.	Luke 2:1–5 census; fits a 1 BC Herod death and places Jesus’ age at about 30 by AD 29.
3. John the Baptist Begins	John began preaching in the 15th year of Tiberius Caesar, i.e., AD 29.	Luke 3:1; consistent with Roman imperial dating.
4. Jesus’ Baptism	Baptized in AD 29, when He was “about 30 years old.”	Luke 3:23; fits a 2 BC birth and aligns with John 1–2's early ministry events.
5. Jesus’ First Passover	Occurred shortly after His baptism, during AD 29.	John 2:13 – Jesus clears the temple at His first Passover.
6. Crucifixion	Took place on Wednesday, April 25, AD 31—Passover (14 Nisan).	U.S. Naval Observatory lunar calendar; fits Jesus being in the tomb 3 days and 3 nights (Matt 12:40).
7. Ministry Duration	Lasted 2+ years, from AD 29 to AD 31.	Coinage from Tiberius + John's Gospel (3 Passovers) + Luke’s baptism date.
8. Prophetic Fulfillment	Daniel’s 69 weeks (483 years) from 445 BC decree → AD 31 crucifixion fulfills “cut off” prophecy.	Daniel 9:25–26 + Nehemiah 2:1 (Artaxerxes’ decree to rebuild Jerusalem).

In the next chapter, we will examine the prophetic framework of King Nebuchadnezzar’s dream and consider the significance of the image, the metals, and map the timeline of geopolitical events leading up to the First Advent of the Messiah and establishing of the church.

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[i] The actual solar year is approximately 365.2422 days, which results in a slight overestimation when calculating 476 years at 365.25 days per year. This discrepancy accumulates to about 3.7 (say, 4) extra days over 476 years. The Gregorian calendar makes adjustments nearly every 100 years by skipping leap years in certain century years to account for this difference.

[ii] Purim, meaning 'lots,' is celebrated in Judaism because it commemorates the day when all the Jews who had been taken captive to Babylon—later conquered by Persia—and their descendants living in Persia were to be exterminated. The Jew-hating Prime Minister Haman cast lots to determine which day they would be exterminated, and the lot fell on the 14th of Adar. Queen Esther obtained their release, and Haman was hanged. Naturally, it is an important feast of the Jews—John 5-1)

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